What and why
Climate risk assessment always involves uncertainty. Being transparent about what we know and what we don't is part of delivering trustworthy results. This article explains the main sources of uncertainty and how they affect what you see in Telescope.
How it works
Three main sources of uncertainty are always present in climate risk analysis:
Scenario uncertainty. Climate projections depend on assumptions about future emissions and socioeconomic development. Different scenarios lead to different outcomes. In the near term, this matters less. By mid-century and beyond, it becomes the most significant factor.
Model uncertainty. Climate models represent complex physical processes through simplifications. Different models can produce different results for the same location, especially at regional and local scales.
Natural variability. Climate fluctuates naturally on daily, seasonal, and decadal timescales. This means that short-term observations may not reflect long-term trends.
In the near term (today and the next couple of decades), model uncertainty and natural variability dominate. Further into the future, scenario uncertainty takes over.
Good to know
Because of these limitations, a climate risk assessment provides an approximation of risk, not a precise prediction. Results should be interpreted with care, keeping in mind the assumptions, data sources, and scenarios behind them.
Where reliable data is limited, we take a precautionary approach rather than excluding the hazard entirely. This means some results may appear conservative, which is intentional.
Data coverage varies between hazards and regions. Telescope is transparent about gaps and shows "no data" when a source doesn't cover a location, rather than filling in assumptions.